Microsoft vs. Open Source: Who Will Win?

I’ve recently found a interesting Q&A from 2005 with Harvard faculty Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Pankaj Ghemawat. It provides a good, readable summary of their dense academic paper, Dynamic Mixed Duopoly: A Model Motivated by Linux vs. Windows. It’s interesting reading about the Microsoft and Open Source Software rivalry.

In a nutshell, they conclude that Microsoft will probably always be on top, but Linux will probably never go away, if not grow a bit. The article does not mention Apple.

Here are some interesting quotes:

“.. Linux[will] never…[displace]… Windows of its leadership position. This result holds true regardless of the strength of Linux’s demand-side learning [ie, ease of use; emphasis original].”

“We found that in countries where piracy is highest, Linux has the lowest penetration rate.”

“…while a monopoly of Linux is always preferable (from the point of view of societal welfare) to a Windows monopoly, it is ambiguous whether a duopoly Linux-Windows is better than a Windows monopoly… while a monopoly of Linux is always preferable (from the point of view of societal welfare) to a Windows monopoly, it is ambiguous whether a duopoly Linux-Windows is better than a Windows monopoly.”

Interesting. I’m not sure I agree with their conclusions. If Linux was as easy to use as any Mac and free, wouldn’t everyone use it?

Then again, I’m not a professor at Harvard. Read the Q&A here.